I was having a review of the wonderful sales pacing dash and thinking about targets and forecast.
I'm wondering if/how people have gone about forecasting a final position based on prior performances and what they used in formulas.
eg:
I was keen to play with sames pacing based on an adjusted forecast target.
Can you tell I'm keen for v16 and predictive modeling?
Hi Heath, the predictive modelling sounds exiting!
Something I don't know if you're considering that struck me, as it sounds like you were intending to use averages - with fluctuating season or production run sizes, I think it would also be wise to build in a 'market share' factor in the forecasting. That is, if you grow the number of performances eg by a quarter, you might find the end result of ticket volumes might only have grown by eg a fifth. Just because you put more product out there, doesn't necessarily equate to more people coming in proportion to that. It will depend on the marketplace you're competing in, and the relative popularity of your product/ extra product. Growing market share can take time.
So it might be worth considering a 'market share' factor built into the forecast. We don't do our forecasting in Tessitura yet, but would always bear this in mind if the season / production run size was expanding. Not sure if the predictive modelling in v16 would allow for this, but would be great to hear from others already using it!
Hi Melanie, I'm curious to hear how you go about considering market share in your forecast? We've always done this rather un-elegantly by tamping down our total season forecast to not go over what a total season made in the last three years. We figure there's only so many patrons out there buying tickets so we shouldn't expect to grow our revenue without some serious reason to think we could. Especially because being a children's theatre our churn is high.