Forecasting

I was having a review of the wonderful sales pacing dash and thinking about targets and forecast.

I'm wondering if/how people have gone about forecasting a final position based on prior performances and what they used in formulas.

eg: 

  1. Averaged Total Ticket Count normalised for capacity &/or number of performances. 
  2. Normalising across day of week and matinee/evening
  3. adjusting for relative subs/single (or other segments you use) at a similar point in the sales period

I was keen to play with sames pacing based on an adjusted forecast target.

Can you tell I'm keen for v16 and predictive modeling?

Parents
  • I've been struggling with this a lot this planning season, because post-covid things have been so different (sales-wise) vs pre-covid.  I ended up calculating my forecast three different ways.  I ended up with $1.2M, $1.3M, and $1.4M which are relatively close to eachother, so I'm considering those my low, mid, high estimates.

    Here are my three models

    1) Use comparable productions (same theatre, time of year, title recognition, age rec) to get an average $ per performance (I break out school and public perfs).  Multiply that by the number of performances in expected run to get the total expected income.  This was the middle number.

    2) Looking only at post-covid seasons or most recent season only, grab your average revenue per performance (broken by theatre and school/public).  Multiply that by your number of performances.  This was the lowest number I got.

    3)  I took a combination of the methods above.  I used the expected percent capacity as determined by the comps (with some exceptions where I had reason to alter it somewhat) and multiplied that by the post-covid average ticket price and the number of performances in the forecasted production.  This was my highest number.

    I'm interested to hear which route you are taking.

  • Does forecasting come with 15.2.36 and onward? I had thought it was only v16

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